Question 1: Is BYU still alive for a BCS bowl berth after an embarrassing 32-7 loss at TCU?
Answer: Yes.
Question 2: Do the Cougars deserve that?
Answer: No.
Simply put, BYU did not look remotely like a BCS caliber team in last Thursday's loss in Fort Worth.
The Cougars are No. 21 in the first BCS standings of the season. Five other non-BCS conference teams are ranked above the Cougars, including Utah (No. 11), Boise State (12), TCU (14), Tulsa (19) and Ball State (20).
Here's what needs to happen for the Cougars to get into the BCS Top 12 by the end of November and pass the handful of teams above in the BCS-buster mix.
1. BYU must win out and win convincingly.
2. Utah must beat TCU and lose to BYU. A loss by the Utes against New Mexico is also possible, but may not actually help the Cougars' cause. Beating an 11-0, Top 10 Utah team would look a lot better for the Y on Nov. 22.
3. Boise State must lose. The Broncos have an extremeley soft schedule, so this isn't likely. The best bets to give BSU a game are San Jose State this week, Nevada on Nov. 22 and Fresno State on Nov. 28. Too bad the Bulldogs have gone down the toilet since the loss to Wisconsin.
4. Ball State and Tulsa must lose. Ball State faces nothing but MAC fodder. Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan will need to play outstanding games to have a shot. As for Tulsa, an Oct. 26 home game against Central Florida and a Nov. 1 road trip to Arkansas are the "toughest" obstacles against a junior-high caliber schedule. A trip to Houston on Nov. 15 could be a mild test.
In short, the odds are long for BYU to get back in the mix. If the Cougars win out, they will be ranked in the Top 12. But passing the teams above them, especially if those teams keep winning, isn't likely.
Looks like another December trip to Vegas or maybe a return to Fort Worth (ughh).
