Forecast Friday ... BYU and the BCS

Will BYU go to a Bowl Championship Series bowl game this year? Not likely. Yes, the possibility exists, but simply too many dominoes have to fall in place, many of them longshots, for the Cougars to land in a big-money game in early January.
In a nutshell, BYU has to finish in the top 16 in the BCS standings (the Cougars are currently 19th) to eligible. But eligibility won't be enough to earn a spot. The guarenteed berth only comes when BYU is in the top 16 and ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ. Can in happen? Yes, if the following occurs on Saturday.
1. Hawaii loses to Washington. Only one non-BCS team gets a guaranteed spot and that spot is the Warriors unless they fall to the Huskies late Saturday (actually early Sunday) on ESPN2.
2. Four-way tie for Pac-10 crown. For this to happen, UCLA must upset USC, Arizona must beat Arizona State and Oregon must fall to Oregon State. With four teams (USC, UCLA, ASU and OSU) tied at 6-3 in conference play, the 7-5 Bruins would go the Rose Bowl. As UCLA is unranked, BYU would get the BCS berth .... if the Cougars are in the top 16.
3. LSU beats Tennessee. If the Volunteers lose, they will drop below BYU in the BCS. The Vols are currently No. 14 in the BCS standings, while Hawaii is No. 12, Arizona State No. 13 and Oregon No. 17. Losses by all four of those teams should be enough to get the Cougars to No. 16.
4. Of course this is all moot if BYU loses to San Diego State Saturday afternoon. The Cougs must get to 10-2 overall and win impressively over the Aztecs. A squeeker may not be enough to move up the requisite three spots in the BCS.
The likelihood of all this? Well, BYU should beat the Aztecs and LSU should beat Tennessee. It won't be that surprising for Oregon State to beat slumping Oregon and surging Arizona to upset ASU. But UCLA over USC for the second straight year and Washington over Hawaii on the islands is probably asking too much. End result: Close but not quite for the Cougars' BCS dreams.

Plan B: There's still a chance Boise State could land a spot in the Las Vegas Bowl opposite BYU, and the Cougars and Broncos tangling in Sam Boyd Stadium on Dec. 22 isn't a bad consolation prize.

As for Saturday's game at SDSU, an important reminder: BYU's last conference road loss came in Qualcomm Stadium in 2005. Of course, this Cougar team is far superior to that one. And if TCU's mediorce offense can light up the Aztecs defense, BYU should have no trouble scoring points. SDSU will score, but not enough to keep it close in the second half. Look for BYU to win, 34-17.
Don't forget to vote in The Cougar Zone poll and check out this week's Fully Invested audio show: http://www.mediafire.com/?ernmcyhytys
Until next time ...

Polls and bowls on Fully Invested

This week's Fully Invested show looks back at the Cougars' miraculous 17-10 win over Utah and ahead to the San Diego State game and a bowl game. And don't forget the BYU men's basketball team, which entered the national rankings after a sweet showing at the Las Vegas Invitational. Click the link below to download the show. And don't forget to vote in the poll.

http://www.mediafire.com/?ernmcyhytys

Collie is still open

After dominating Utah everywhere but the scoreboard for most of four quarters, it was fitting to see BYU pull out a 17-10, heart-stopping win over Utah Saturday at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Congrats to the Cougars and congrats to the 45 percent of you who voted BYU winning in a thriller as the top choice in our poll.
The Cougars should crack the Top 20 come Monday. Now the biggest question is where will the Cougars go bowling and who will they play. It actually looks like a rematch with UCLA could materialize in the Las Vegas Bowl after the Bruins' blanked Oregon on Saturday. The second biggest question is whether the Cougar football or basketball team will finish with the highest rating at the end of their respective seasons. And that is the topic of our newest poll.
Check back next week for the latest edition of our Fully Invested audio show. Until then ...

Holy War matchups and prediction

Talk about an intriguing matchup. Consider this: The Holy War rivarly already boasts nine of the last 10 games being decided by seven points or fewer. Yet during that span, never have the two teams entered the game more evenly matched on paper than Saturday's contest between No. 23 BYU and Utah. Of course, as always in this game, you can throw out records (the Cougars are 8-2 and Utes 8-3, just for the record) and toss out any thoughts of home-field advantage (Utah has won six of the last seven games at LaVell Edward Stadium).

Setting the table

Saturday's noon game (the Mtn, CSTV and VERSUS) features two quarterbacks (BYU's Max Hall and Utah's Brian Johnson) making their first foray into the Holy War, two running backs (BYU's Harvey Unga and Utah's Darrell Mack) whose season has far exceeded any preseason expections, two offenses that each boast seven receivers with 12 catches or more and two defenses ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense (BYU 14th, Utah 16th).

Matching up

A look at this season's results tell us two things: BYU is slightly better than Utah at scoring points, but the Utes are slightly better than the Cougs at limiting the opposition's scoring output. Here's a breakdown of each phase of the game.

Getting a bit offensive

Utah is powered by Darrell Mack. The running back has 1,095 yards on the year. If he runs successfully up the middle, the Utes are tough to stop. Brian Johnson has thrown for 1,492 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven picks. Not amazing numbers when sidled up next to Max Hall's 3,121 yards, 21 TDs and 10 picks. Johnson is more mobile, but only has 56 rushing yards this year. Both teams throw to multiple receivers, but rely on the rushing game to make the passing game go. Ultimately, BYU has two advantages: Unga's ability to catch the ball out the backfield (he has 573 receiving yards to Mack's 117) makes his contributions more diverse than Mack's and BYU's passing game is more adept at steadily moving the football and just has a few more weapons between Unga's rushing (931 yards) and the pass-catching ablities of Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta.
Advantage: BYU.

'Stops' being defensive

BYU and Utah don't like to give up points. Both have solid team leaders at linebacker (Utah's Joe Jiannoni and BYU's Brian Kehl and Kelly Poppinga) and in the secondary (Utah's Steve Tate and BYU's Ben Criddle). On the defensive line, both feature young talent (Utah's Koa Misi and Paul Kruger and BYU's Jan Jorgensen and Brett Denney). Against common foes, the Utes have tended the limit team's scoring, but that's largely thanks to field position created by Louie Sakoda's leg. Still, with Quinn Gooch out of the BYU secondary with a season-ending knee injury, the Utes may even be slightly better here. But the Cougars strength at linebacker levels the field.
Advantage: Even

What's special about these teams

On special teams, both squads feature dangerous kick returners. BYU's Austin Collie averages 26 yards per return, while Utah's Brice McCain is at 23.3. But almost every other area of this vital third phase of the game belongs to the Utes. Derrek Richards averages 15.5 yards per punt return to Bryce Mahuika's 8.3. And kicker Louis Sakoda is 18 of 21 on field goals and 32 of 34 on PATs. BYU's Mitch Payne had two kicks blocked at Wyoming last week and is 6 of 9 on field goals. Sakoda is more accurate and has a stronger leg. If the game comes down to a kick, especially one of 35 yards or more, the Utes have to like their chances.
Advantage: Utah.

Who will win this one

Before we get to which team will win this one, here's six players who will ultimately decide the outcome of the 2007 edition of the Holy War.
Utah's Steve Tate: If the talented defensive back can pick off Max Hall during the game and lay big hits on the BYU receivers, back and tight ends, the Utes make is seven of eight at LES.
BYU's Kellen Fowler: Replacing Quinn Quich at safety, Fowler is the quarterback of the defense, getting BYU in the right sets. Making only his second career start, Fowler's decisions and playmaking ability will largely determine if the Utes score 20 points or more.
Utah's Brian Johnson: If Johnson's passes are pedestrian and he doesn't make plays with his feet, Utah will become one-dimensional with Darrell Mack's rushing and the BYU D will have a field day. If Johnson is accurate and dangerous, watch out.
BYU's Max Hall: If Hall gets rid of the ball quickly, makes smarts decisions and finds his array of receivers, tight ends and running backs, BYU won't have trouble scoring 20-30 points. His ability to read Utah's blitzes and find the right guy will be big. If he's got nerves in the biggest game of his young career, the mistakes could mount. But if he plays well, BYU has a clear edge under center.
Utah's Louis Sakoda: By controlling field position with his punts, Sakoda could make it a long day for BYU's offense. The Cougars certainly can drive 80 to 90 yards if needed, but having to do so throughout the game will limit the offensive output. And if a game-winning or game-turning field goal is needed, Sakoda is money in the bank.
BYU's Mitch Payne: Payne's short kickoffs could give the Utes great field position, especially if the ball lands in Brice McCain's hands. If Payne misses a PAT or field goal, the Cougars likely lose a close one.

The pick

Early in the week, I was leaning toward Utah. But ultimately, BYU has more offensive weapons, a better quarterback and more diverse running back. That should overcome Utah's advantages on special teams. Both defenses are good, but this one will feature some points.
Final score: BYU 28, Utah 24

Breaking down the Holy War

The big game has arrived. With both teams riding seven-game winning streaks, the 2007 version of Utah versus BYU should be a classic. Of course, topping the recent games in the series will be hard, but it could happen. For a breakdown of the matchup, some thoughts from Bronco and an update on Max Hall's shoulder, check out this week's Fully Invested show at one of the links below.

http://www.mediafire.com/?92cm0wzymtb

http://myfreefilehosting.com/f/96e6a066d2_6.68MB

The best six seconds in sports

There is nothing more enjoyable – or perhaps the more accurate adjective is “painful” – than watching a sideline reporter attempt to interview BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall just before halftime.
Little does the interviewer know that no matter what question is asked or how that question is phrased, the interviewee will offer up pretty much the same answer.
It could be a brief one-liner containing the word “consistency.” Or there’s the one about “executing at a higher level.”
Of course, if Broncos’ in a real giving mood, he’ll throw in the whole ball of wax and wax a bit poetic about consistently executing at a higher level.
Week after week
Game after game.
Calling forth memories of Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, the scene on the sideline is again repeated.
But if Bronco’s all about consistency with his team, he may as well set the standard by demonstrating consistency in his media interviews. He executes his answers the same week in, week out, regardless of circumstance.
Thus, it unfolds.
1:47 p.m. – The first question is asked.
1:47 p.m. and four seconds – The first brief, seemingly prepared answer is given.
1:47 p.m. and five seconds – The reporter, thrown off by the abrupt answer, stumbles a bit. There’s a pause.
1:47 p.m. and seven seconds – A second question is put forth.
1:47 p.m. and 10 seconds – Broncos’ second answer is complete. The minute the coach speaks the last of his coach speak, his lips snap shut and turn slightly downward, almost LaVell Edwards-esque.
1:47 p.m. and 12 seconds – Now the real quandary arrives. Does the reporter end the interview after all of 12 seconds. Should the reporter thank Bronco and send things back up to the guys in the booth. Or, bravely, and maybe unwisely, does the reporter daringly toss out a third query?
1:47 p.m. and 13 seconds – Bronco looks poised to run into the tunnel. Halftime is only 20 minutes long, after all, and now only 19:47 of that remains. He’s anxious to leave. Anxious to get on to more important duties in the locker room, like making key defensive adjustments or visiting the lou.
1:47 p.m. and 13.5 seconds – His face does nothing to hide his feelings.
1:47 p.m. and 14 seconds – The third question comes.
1:47 p.m. and 16 seconds – Yes, the third answer, somehow, winds up shorter than the first two.
1:47 p.m. and 17 seconds – Beaten, the reporter gives a Mona Lisa smile. Bronco is thanked. He nods and runs to the tunnel. With a look that’s part perplexed, part quizzical and part amused, the reporter sends it back to the booth.
Seventeen seconds. A new record for a three-question session.
Sitting before the tube, we shake our heads. Some of us laugh. Others just smile.
Bubbly, Bronco is not. Talkative and chatty need not apply as his descriptors. But he’s not trying to make anyone’s job tougher.
It’s just Bronco being Bronco. He’s the first to admit he’s a private person. He doesn’t relish the spotlight or the incessant and repetitive questions from the media.
But could there be another motive behind his terse answers?
Word is the Guinness Book of World Record’s next edition will contain a new entry: Shortest college football halftime television interview.
Bronco may not enjoy the spotlight. But he enjoys a good joke.
And finding his name and photo in the record books with the words “six seconds” by his smiling mug is the perfect way to spice up the offseason.

Forecast Friday ... on a Thursday

Forecast Friday arrives a day early and it comes as part of the Fully Invested audio show. Click the link below to listen to the show. We look at this week's Mountain West football games and the fast start by the BYU basketball team. As always, The Cougar Zone blog and the Fully Invested show are here to satisfy your Cougar Cravings. Check back Monday for a look back at the Wyoming game and a look ahead to the Holy War. In the meantime, don't forget to vote in the poll and spread the word about The Cougar Zone and Fully Invested.
Until next time ...

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The wonderful overlap and things to come

It's a short but glorious time each year as fall fades and winter arrives. Yes, the weather usually bites. But when football hits the season's final stretch and basketball tips things off, it's a sports smorgasbord for fans. BYU tips off its home hoops slate Wednesday against Idaho State. And through the Cougars' football bowl game, we'll enjoy the gridiron and the hardwood at the same time.
Doesn't get much better than that.
As for the things to come on the blog, look for Forecast Friday as we (meaning, "I") predict all the games in the Mountain West and other regional outcomes of interest. Of course, BYU will be at the forefront of each forecast.
Don't forget to scroll down the blog and check out the right rail for Cougar media stories, videos from You Tube and the Provo weather forecast, which will be very handy on game day.
Until next time ...

Greetings, Cougar fans

Welcome to The Cougar Zone. The goal of this blog is to provide all the things BYU football and basketball fans seek online. From audio shows, to blog comments, links to BYU stories by other media and BYU highlight videos, The Cougar Zone is one-stop shopping for BYU fans. It gives the BYU fanatic a chance to satisfy his Cougar cravings and still have time to get his home teaching done. We'll feature links to our audio blog, Fully Invested, at least weekly. Also look for exclusive Cougar content, like columns. There will also be polls, insights and other such fun.

Here's the link for our first Fully Invested audio blog: http://www.mediafire.com/?2mbbjxt1yj0.

Enjoy.