BCS or bust, quite literally

First off, some offseason admissions.
No. 1: I'm a BYU football nut. This time of year, like most of you reading this blog, I scour every inch of the Web and every inch of every preseason magazine, searching for kernels of BYU football truth. I can't get enough. But my Y fever gratefully has two limits, which make up admissions Nos. 2-3.
No. 2: I'm not a recruiting junkie. Recruiting day doesn't get me in a lather. I don't get juiced reading about the next big recruit. Like KSL's Greg Wrubell (see http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=498&sid=2613520), I get much more excited about the start of Fall Camp than I do about signing day.
No. 3: I'm not a spring football nut. This year was the first time I've ever taken in the Blue and White Scrimmage. It was fun, but the game itself, admit it, is boring.
No. 4: Every May, I start jonesing for the season to begin. While I love summer, part of me -- an increasingly big part -- can't wait for it to end so football season can begin.
With that in mind, here's a few thoughts on the season ahead.

BCS hype: Like the next guy, I'm pumped about the Cougars chances to go unbeaten and reach a BCS bowl game, perhaps even the BCS title game if the cards fall just right. But the pessimistic side of me sees another distinct possibility this season.
A third consecutive 1-2 start.
The Northern Iowa game is a gimmee. It may not be as bad as last year's Eastern Washington game, but the Cougs will win by double figures.
At Washington in Week 2 and hosting UCLA in Week 3 scare me. The Huskies are good at home, have a talented QB in Jake Locker and beat up Boise State at home last September. BYU can win this game, but I keep have a recurring nightmare about a repeat of 1996 when the 14-1 Cougars' suffered their lone blemish at Washington to a so-so Husky team.
UCLA has issues at quarterback, but the Bruin coaching staff makes this game dicey for BYU. The Bruin defense has the Y figured under Dewayne Walker. And with Norm Chow running the UCLA offense, anything could happen.
If BYU manages 3-0 through the first few weeks, a few cartwheels will certainly be justified. But don't count the BCS eggs before they hatch. Going at TCU and at Utah may be the two toughest tests of 2008.
Don't get me wrong, BYU will be good. Very good. Good enough that I've added my name to the waiting list for Fiesta Bowl tickets. Just in case.
But before we get too crazy with BCS talk, let's make sure we don't repeat the 1-2 start that's been a trademark of each of Bronco Mendenhall's teams.

Not too shabby

So BYU finished No. 14 in the final Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today Coaches' polls. Not bad. Especially considering the Cougars were, well, fortunate to win their bowl game over a .500 team in UCLA.
Moving up five spots after a 17-16 win against the Bruins (note: insert a special thank you to Eathyn Manumaleunahere) is a pretty good result and reward.
The pieces are now in place for a solid start in 2008. But don't underestimate that road trip to the University of Washington in Week 2. The Cougars did that in 1996 and it cost them an undefeated season and Bowl Alliance berth. Yes, the Huskies were only 4-8 in 2007, but they led in almost every game, including against Ohio State, and were a few plays from finishing with a solid winning record. Just ask Hawaii, which rallied to edge UW in its regular-season finale.

One of our recent polls asked whether the BYU football or men's basketball team would finish with the higher national ranking. As things stand now, it looks like football is a virtual lock. BYU has few marquee basketball opportunities remaining on the season. Even a strong conference mark won't likely land the Cougars in the top 15.
So for now we enjoy a solid basketball season, hopefully avoid a first-round flop in the NCAA tourney (if BYU gets there) and then endure the long football offseason.
Hey, just over seven months to go until two-a-days.

Until then, let the hype machines start humming. And the Cougar Zone will do its part. This summer will roll out the Fully Invested audio show once again to help stave off the offseason boredom.

Cougars need voters to have selective memory

Most folks seem to have a selective memory. I for one, can never seem to recall the four times my wife claims to have asked me to take out the trash. I'm now holding out hope that the writers of the college football preview magazines and the voters in next year's Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today Coaches' polls have selective memories as well.

Here's why:
BYU's postgame comments after the Las Vegas Bowl centered largely around next season. A BCS bowl is all the talk with nine starters back on offense and a decent group returning on defense. But starting high in the preseason polls could make or break the Cougars' 2008 postseason dream. Especially if next season includes a loss to either UCLA or Washington.
So here's what the Cougars need preview mag writers and poll voters to remember and to conveniently forget.

Remember: BYU beat UCLA in the Vegas Bowl.
Forget: BYU was more lucky than good in Vegas, winning just 17-16 against a 6-7 team thanks a blocked field goal on the final play of the game.

Remember: BYU finished the season 11-2 with a 10-game winning streak.
Forget: Most of that streak came against bad Mountain West teams and the Cougars are lucky the streak is alive after a miracle finish against the Bruins.

Remember: An offense loaded with underclassmen, including Max Hall, Austin Collie and Harvey Unga was good in 2007 and should be great in 2008.
Forget: Against UCLA, Unga went for just 16 yards on 17 carries behind a line unable to open holes and Hall looked quite average under center.

Remember: The Titans.
Forget: The Replacements. What a lame football movie.

Remember: BYU returns a talented stable of defensive lineman and some decent talent at linebacker.
Forget: The Cougars lose most of their secondary and their two best linebackers.

Remember: Bronco Mendenhall is 22-4 in the last two seasons.
Forget: The last three years of the Gary Crowton era.

With selective memory, BYU should land in the top 20 in both polls. Yes, the AP poll doesn't figure into the BCS standings, but it still plays a role. When the Harris poll comes out, its voters will surely mirror some of what they see in the other polls. If preview magazine writers focus on the nature of the UCLA bowl win, BYU won't be seen in an overly positive light and voters, who are influenced by Phil Steele, Athlon, Lindy's and the like, will land BYU in the back of the Top 25.
The difference between preseason No. 17 and preseason No. 23 could be huge in the BCS picture.

Oops, better go, the wife is saying something about a dishwasher I was supposed to unload. Funny, I don't remember that ...

Familiarity hurts in Vegas

Bowl week is here. But does anyone care? OK, that's an overstatement. Folks care. Cougar fans care.
But not as much as last year.
Why? There's simply a been-there-done-that feel to this year's Las Vegas Bowl. From the bowl itself to the opponent, a feeling of deja vu dominates the proceedings.
With BYU making a third straight trip to the Las Vegas, it's apparent the third time is not the charm. Tickets to the 2006 bowl game against Oregon were a tough buy. E-bay prices were through the roof and BYU's allotment was gone faster than you can say "Big-money Cougar Club members only."
This year, not so much. The Las Vegas Bowl is still a popular ticket, at least for BYU fans, but the BYU ticket office still had seats to sell this week.
And facing UCLA takes a bit more from the game's luster. While BYU fell 27-17 to the Bruins in September, the Cougars now are much different than the Cougars then. And today's depleted UCLA team is just a shadow of it's then-No. 13 self.
Will it be as lopsided as the Oregon blowout? Probably not. This could be a tight game going into the fourth quarter. But more than likely, BYU will beat a disinterested, coach-less Bruin squad by double figures.
Really, this game is all about next year. Preseason rankings rely heavily on the previous season's finish. If the Cougars want to be in the Top 20 next August, they need to win on Saturday. Impressively.
We will watch. We will care. But not quite as much as we could have. If Boise State was the foe, or Oregon State or some team not named UCLA, there would be plenty of energy in the air.
Instead, the fan focus is more on the BYU basketball team with its own Top 25 ranking. That's something to get excited about.
Too bad the same can't be said for the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl. Maybe on game day that will change.
Here's hoping.

Forecast Friday ... BYU and the BCS

Will BYU go to a Bowl Championship Series bowl game this year? Not likely. Yes, the possibility exists, but simply too many dominoes have to fall in place, many of them longshots, for the Cougars to land in a big-money game in early January.
In a nutshell, BYU has to finish in the top 16 in the BCS standings (the Cougars are currently 19th) to eligible. But eligibility won't be enough to earn a spot. The guarenteed berth only comes when BYU is in the top 16 and ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ. Can in happen? Yes, if the following occurs on Saturday.
1. Hawaii loses to Washington. Only one non-BCS team gets a guaranteed spot and that spot is the Warriors unless they fall to the Huskies late Saturday (actually early Sunday) on ESPN2.
2. Four-way tie for Pac-10 crown. For this to happen, UCLA must upset USC, Arizona must beat Arizona State and Oregon must fall to Oregon State. With four teams (USC, UCLA, ASU and OSU) tied at 6-3 in conference play, the 7-5 Bruins would go the Rose Bowl. As UCLA is unranked, BYU would get the BCS berth .... if the Cougars are in the top 16.
3. LSU beats Tennessee. If the Volunteers lose, they will drop below BYU in the BCS. The Vols are currently No. 14 in the BCS standings, while Hawaii is No. 12, Arizona State No. 13 and Oregon No. 17. Losses by all four of those teams should be enough to get the Cougars to No. 16.
4. Of course this is all moot if BYU loses to San Diego State Saturday afternoon. The Cougs must get to 10-2 overall and win impressively over the Aztecs. A squeeker may not be enough to move up the requisite three spots in the BCS.
The likelihood of all this? Well, BYU should beat the Aztecs and LSU should beat Tennessee. It won't be that surprising for Oregon State to beat slumping Oregon and surging Arizona to upset ASU. But UCLA over USC for the second straight year and Washington over Hawaii on the islands is probably asking too much. End result: Close but not quite for the Cougars' BCS dreams.

Plan B: There's still a chance Boise State could land a spot in the Las Vegas Bowl opposite BYU, and the Cougars and Broncos tangling in Sam Boyd Stadium on Dec. 22 isn't a bad consolation prize.

As for Saturday's game at SDSU, an important reminder: BYU's last conference road loss came in Qualcomm Stadium in 2005. Of course, this Cougar team is far superior to that one. And if TCU's mediorce offense can light up the Aztecs defense, BYU should have no trouble scoring points. SDSU will score, but not enough to keep it close in the second half. Look for BYU to win, 34-17.
Don't forget to vote in The Cougar Zone poll and check out this week's Fully Invested audio show: http://www.mediafire.com/?ernmcyhytys
Until next time ...