The 2009 BYU football schedule is a dandy, particularly for season ticket holders as LES. Last year's home slate had little to entice the Cougar Faithful, but this year's lineup is loaded with Florida State, TCU and Utah coming to LES. When I asked BYU's beat writers which home game was the toughest, all three answered "Utah." But how do the 12 regular-season games stack up in terms of toughness. Here's my take on the schedule, from speed bump (Utah State) to Mount Everest (Oklahoma), with BYU's chances of winning rated from 1 (extremely slim) to 10 (sure bet). Consider a 5 as a 50-50 toss-up game.
12. Utah State (Oct. 2)
The skinny: Aggies are better in 2009, but Cougars get ready for conference weekend with a lopsided home win.
Rating: 9
11. Wyoming (Nov. 7)
The skinny: Pokes always fade late and team will rebuild with new coach and new schemes. Cougars roll in Laramie once again.
Rating: 8.5
10. San Diego State (Oct. 17)
The skinny: Aztecs rebuild under another new coach and again underachieve, fading in the second half against BYU.
Rating: 8.
9. Colorado State (Sept. 26)
The skinny: Rams won't keep pace with Cougars at LES, so last year's shootout isn't repeated.
Rating: 8.
8. Air Force (Nov. 21)
The skinny: BYU knows how to defend the Falcons, especially at home.
Rating: 8
7. UNLV (Oct. 10)
The skinny: Rebels continue to make minor strides and will give Cougars a good test in Sin City.
Rating: 6.5
6. New Mexico (Nov. 14)
The skinny: Lobos rebuild with new coach and new schemes, but always play BYU tough in Albuquerque.
Rating: 6
5. Tulane (Sept. 12)
The skinny: Green Wave had injury-riddle 2008 season, but has talent to hang with BYU in the Louisiana Superdome.
Rating: 6
4. Florida State (Sept. 19)
The skinny: The Seminoles present numerous matchup challenges with their speed and athleticism. But FSU is weak in the secondary, which means BYU should put up plenty of points.
Rating: 5
3. TCU (Oct. 24)
The skinny: Cougs look to avenge 2008 embarrassment in Fort Worth, but a loaded TCU team will provide a stiff homecoming challenge.
Rating: 5
2. Utah (Nov. 28)
The skinny: No matter the circumstances or records, this one's always tough. Utah should take a couple steps back in 2009, but will still be primed for a big rivalry game.
Rating: 5
1. Oklahoma (Sept. 5)
The skinny: BYU faces biggest obstacle of the year right out of the chute. BYU's question at defensive tackle could mean a long day against OU's stable of backs, while Heisman winner Sam Bradford could destory the Cougars' porous secondary.
Rating: 1.5
Point after: Cougars should be favored in at least eight of their 12 games. But the other four will prove what kind of season it turns out to be. If BYU goes 8-0 in games 12-5 and can split Nos. 4-1, a 10-2 season would be pretty successful. Eleven wins is not out of the question, but would require some major strides on the defensive end.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Friday, June 5, 2009
Heaps of talent headed to BYU
Check out this video footage of the press conference announcing that quarterback Jake Heaps, receiver Ross Apo and linebacker Zac Stout are headed to BYU in 2010. Once this gets you absolutely pumped for Cougar football, check out my entry on the 2009 season in which BYU's top three beat writers answers six key questions about the coming campaign. http://thecougarzone.blogspot.com/2009/06/beat-on-2009-season_04.html
Enjoy.
Enjoy.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
The 'beat' on the 2009 season
Want the inside scoop on the 2009 season? Talk to the guys who cover the Cougars for a living. The top three BYU beat writers in the Beehive State were kind enough to answer my questions on the upcoming season.
Here's what Jeff Call (Deseret News), Jay Drew (Salt Lake Tribune) and Darnell Dickson, my former boss at the Daily Herald, had to say on some of the key issues that will shape the Cougars campaign.
Which game on the schedule is most important to BYU’s success in 2009?
Jeff Call, Desert News: Utah
Jay Drew, Salt Lake Tribune: I am going to say Florida State, because I think that game will set the tone for the rest of the year. The Cougars will likely be 1-1 (losing to Oklahoma, beating Tulane) heading into that game, their home opener, and what happens Sept. 19 in Provo will go a long way in determining what kind of season the Cougs have.
Darnell Dickson, Daily Herald: Got to be TCU at BYU on Oct. 24. It will be BYU’s first true MWC test and after getting blasted last year, the Cougars have a score to settle.
Which home game is the toughest: Florida State, TCU or Utah?
Jeff Call: Utah
Jay Drew: The Utah game will be the toughest. It always is. Utah gets up to play BYU, regardless of records, place or anything else.
Darnell Dickson: Always Utah. The past six games against the Utes at LES have been decided by seven points or less.
Which receiver will step up to fill the shoes of Austin Collie?
Jeff Call: McKay Jacobson
Jay Drew: I don’t see a single receiver stepping up to replace Collie on his own. However, the leading receiver on the team will be McKay Jacobson.
Darnell Dickson: You can’t fill those shoes with just one guy. O’Neill Chambers and McKay Jacobsen will both have to step up and be impact players.
Will BYU’s defense be better in 2009 than 2008?
Jeff Call: Yes, but with Oklahoma on the schedule, it might not show statistically.
Jay Drew: I would have said yes a month ago, but the news that Russell Tialavea is going on a mission means the defensive line will have depth concerns. I would say the defense will be about the same as last year. The safeties will be better, but the linebackers will struggle mightily to replace David Nixon.
Darnell Dickson: The Cougars have lost two starting defensive linemen to missions and the cornerback spot is still a huge question mark. So my answer right now would be “no.”
How will BYU finish the regular season record wise?
Jeff Call: 9-3
Jay Drew: 9-3
Darnell Dickson: I think a 9- or 10-win season would be a huge success in 2009.
Which player will rise up to become a star this season?
Jeff Call: Safety Andrew Rich
Jay Drew: Jacobson is the obvious choice, but I think RB Malosi Te’o is going to be a factor before the season is over.
Darnell Dickson: Sophomore outside linebacker Jordan Pendleton, who is learning a new position but has all the physical tools.
Here's what Jeff Call (Deseret News), Jay Drew (Salt Lake Tribune) and Darnell Dickson, my former boss at the Daily Herald, had to say on some of the key issues that will shape the Cougars campaign.
Which game on the schedule is most important to BYU’s success in 2009?
Jeff Call, Desert News: Utah
Jay Drew, Salt Lake Tribune: I am going to say Florida State, because I think that game will set the tone for the rest of the year. The Cougars will likely be 1-1 (losing to Oklahoma, beating Tulane) heading into that game, their home opener, and what happens Sept. 19 in Provo will go a long way in determining what kind of season the Cougs have.
Darnell Dickson, Daily Herald: Got to be TCU at BYU on Oct. 24. It will be BYU’s first true MWC test and after getting blasted last year, the Cougars have a score to settle.
Which home game is the toughest: Florida State, TCU or Utah?
Jeff Call: Utah
Jay Drew: The Utah game will be the toughest. It always is. Utah gets up to play BYU, regardless of records, place or anything else.
Darnell Dickson: Always Utah. The past six games against the Utes at LES have been decided by seven points or less.
Which receiver will step up to fill the shoes of Austin Collie?
Jeff Call: McKay Jacobson
Jay Drew: I don’t see a single receiver stepping up to replace Collie on his own. However, the leading receiver on the team will be McKay Jacobson.
Darnell Dickson: You can’t fill those shoes with just one guy. O’Neill Chambers and McKay Jacobsen will both have to step up and be impact players.
Will BYU’s defense be better in 2009 than 2008?
Jeff Call: Yes, but with Oklahoma on the schedule, it might not show statistically.
Jay Drew: I would have said yes a month ago, but the news that Russell Tialavea is going on a mission means the defensive line will have depth concerns. I would say the defense will be about the same as last year. The safeties will be better, but the linebackers will struggle mightily to replace David Nixon.
Darnell Dickson: The Cougars have lost two starting defensive linemen to missions and the cornerback spot is still a huge question mark. So my answer right now would be “no.”
How will BYU finish the regular season record wise?
Jeff Call: 9-3
Jay Drew: 9-3
Darnell Dickson: I think a 9- or 10-win season would be a huge success in 2009.
Which player will rise up to become a star this season?
Jeff Call: Safety Andrew Rich
Jay Drew: Jacobson is the obvious choice, but I think RB Malosi Te’o is going to be a factor before the season is over.
Darnell Dickson: Sophomore outside linebacker Jordan Pendleton, who is learning a new position but has all the physical tools.
Monday, June 1, 2009
OU equals U.O. (Unideal Opener)
While Oklahoma (2009 opener) and Northern Iowa (2008 opener) are light years a part as far as football programs go, they do share one thing in common. Both represent far from ideal season openers for the BYU football team.
BYU had a string of ideal openers from 2002 to 2007, but that ended with Northern Iowa and continues with the Sooners. It's an unfortunate trend as the season opener is the most hyped game of the season. It's the only game that has months of lead-up time. It's the game Cougar fans spend the entire summer pining for.
So, what makes an ideal season opener? I see four criteria:
1. A toss-up game. A 50-50 matchup in which the outcome could easily go either way means the hype and ancipation reach much higher levels. When BYU is neither a clear favorite (as in 2008) or a heavy underdog (as in 2009), the buildup to the season opener is far superior.
2. A BCS opponent. Taking on a team from a BCS conference is key. Facing a FCS (Division I-AA) team or someone like Tulane takes the luster off the opener.
3. National television: Beating a BCS foe before the eyes of the nation gives BYU an important opportunity to gain national respect and rise in the rankings before the MWC slate begins.
4. Home sweet home: Playing a LaVell Edwards Stadium means BYU is nearly assured of opening the season 1-0. The Cougars have lost four straight road season openers, but are 8-2 in their last 10 home season openers.
When a game fits all four criteria, it's an ideal season opener. Three of four makes in nearly ideal. Anything less falls into the unideal category. Here's a look at where BYU's recent season openers fall on this scale.
2009: BYU vs. Oklahoma (At Arlington, Texas), Unideal (two of four criteria met)
2008: BYU vs. Northern Iowa (LES), Unideal (two of four)
2007: BYU vs. Arizona, Ideal (four of four)
2006: BYU at Arizona, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2005: BYU vs. Boston College, Ideal (four of four)
2004: BYU vs. Notre Dame, Ideal (four of four)
2003: BYU vs. Georgia Tech, Ideal (four of four)
2002: BYU vs. Syracuse, Ideal (four of four)
2001: BYU vs. Tulane, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2000: BYU at Florida State, Unideal (two of four)
Conclusion: Is there upside to the 2009 opener? Certainly. A win would put BYU in the Top 15 of the national polls and would help the Cougars supplant Boise State, TCU and Utah as the early front runner for a non-BCS team most likely to make a BCS game. But the truth is, BYU will be at least a 17-point underdog and will likely start the season 0-1. That makes the home opener with Florida State -- which would qualify as an ideal season opener -- that much bigger. Starting 1-2 (or 0-3 with an upset loss at Tulane) would be devastating.
BYU had a string of ideal openers from 2002 to 2007, but that ended with Northern Iowa and continues with the Sooners. It's an unfortunate trend as the season opener is the most hyped game of the season. It's the only game that has months of lead-up time. It's the game Cougar fans spend the entire summer pining for.
So, what makes an ideal season opener? I see four criteria:
1. A toss-up game. A 50-50 matchup in which the outcome could easily go either way means the hype and ancipation reach much higher levels. When BYU is neither a clear favorite (as in 2008) or a heavy underdog (as in 2009), the buildup to the season opener is far superior.
2. A BCS opponent. Taking on a team from a BCS conference is key. Facing a FCS (Division I-AA) team or someone like Tulane takes the luster off the opener.
3. National television: Beating a BCS foe before the eyes of the nation gives BYU an important opportunity to gain national respect and rise in the rankings before the MWC slate begins.
4. Home sweet home: Playing a LaVell Edwards Stadium means BYU is nearly assured of opening the season 1-0. The Cougars have lost four straight road season openers, but are 8-2 in their last 10 home season openers.
When a game fits all four criteria, it's an ideal season opener. Three of four makes in nearly ideal. Anything less falls into the unideal category. Here's a look at where BYU's recent season openers fall on this scale.
2009: BYU vs. Oklahoma (At Arlington, Texas), Unideal (two of four criteria met)
2008: BYU vs. Northern Iowa (LES), Unideal (two of four)
2007: BYU vs. Arizona, Ideal (four of four)
2006: BYU at Arizona, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2005: BYU vs. Boston College, Ideal (four of four)
2004: BYU vs. Notre Dame, Ideal (four of four)
2003: BYU vs. Georgia Tech, Ideal (four of four)
2002: BYU vs. Syracuse, Ideal (four of four)
2001: BYU vs. Tulane, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2000: BYU at Florida State, Unideal (two of four)
Conclusion: Is there upside to the 2009 opener? Certainly. A win would put BYU in the Top 15 of the national polls and would help the Cougars supplant Boise State, TCU and Utah as the early front runner for a non-BCS team most likely to make a BCS game. But the truth is, BYU will be at least a 17-point underdog and will likely start the season 0-1. That makes the home opener with Florida State -- which would qualify as an ideal season opener -- that much bigger. Starting 1-2 (or 0-3 with an upset loss at Tulane) would be devastating.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)