Wednesday, February 13, 2008

How will it end?

Someday, Danny Ainge's coast-to-coast, buzzer-beating lay-in over the outstretched arms of Orlando Woolridge might have some competition as far as being the best the highlight in BYU's NCAA Tournament history.
Someday.
Could that come this year?
Maybe. But first, BYU has to make the tournament field, and second, the Cougars need to get their first first-round victory since a 1993 triumph over SMU as a No. 7 seed. (The Cougars lost to No. 2 seed Kansas in the second round that year).
While BYU's recent NCAA success has been lacking and the Cougars are only 11-25 in 22 tourney trips, the last few visits have had the boys in blue on the cusp.
In 2003, the Cougars nearly beat defending national champion Connecticut before falling 58-53. The next year in Denver, BYU had another defending NCAA champ on the ropes, leading Syracuse by double figures in the first half behind the surprising 3-point shooting of Luiz Lemes and Mike Hall. But Gerry McNamara had the game of his life with 43 points and nine treys as the Orangemen rallied for an 80-75 win.
Last year's trip saw BYU falter down the stretch in a 79-77 loss Xavier in an 8-9 game. But the seed was the Cougars' highest since 1995. And it came with a 25-8 record. This year's squad is on pace for a 25-6 regular season (if they go 7-1 in MWC's second half with a predicted loss at San Diego State). Winning the conference tourney in Vegas would mean a 28-6 record, but more likely is reaching the finals and losing to UNLV.
Where would a 27-7 BYU be seeded? Despite playing more big-name teams this year, the Cougars' schedule strength isn't impressive overall. And the road losses at Boise State and Wake Forest will knock BYU down a rung or two, even with a solid run down the stretch in conference play.
BYU is destined for a double-digit seed, but the Cougars have played tough as a No. 12 seed in recent NCAA visits as mentioned above. The key to winning as an 11 or 12 seed is the play of Trent Plaisted and Jonathan Tavernari. Both are explosive but inconsistent. I wouldn't count on JT being on fire the NCAAs, so Plaisted will have to score inside to complement Lee Cummard and the steady but unspectacular Sam Burgess. If that happens, BYU has a chance. If JT is hitting, BYU reaches the second round and possibly the second week.
The last time that happened?
Yep, 1981. Danny Ainge and company beat Princeton and UCLA the first week, topped Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 and fell to Virginia in the Elite 8.
Not much has been Elite about BYU basketball since. But that could change this year.
That is, if the Cougars are living right. Because if they are, Magic Happens.
Even in March.

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