Forecast Friday ... BYU and the BCS

Will BYU go to a Bowl Championship Series bowl game this year? Not likely. Yes, the possibility exists, but simply too many dominoes have to fall in place, many of them longshots, for the Cougars to land in a big-money game in early January.
In a nutshell, BYU has to finish in the top 16 in the BCS standings (the Cougars are currently 19th) to eligible. But eligibility won't be enough to earn a spot. The guarenteed berth only comes when BYU is in the top 16 and ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ. Can in happen? Yes, if the following occurs on Saturday.
1. Hawaii loses to Washington. Only one non-BCS team gets a guaranteed spot and that spot is the Warriors unless they fall to the Huskies late Saturday (actually early Sunday) on ESPN2.
2. Four-way tie for Pac-10 crown. For this to happen, UCLA must upset USC, Arizona must beat Arizona State and Oregon must fall to Oregon State. With four teams (USC, UCLA, ASU and OSU) tied at 6-3 in conference play, the 7-5 Bruins would go the Rose Bowl. As UCLA is unranked, BYU would get the BCS berth .... if the Cougars are in the top 16.
3. LSU beats Tennessee. If the Volunteers lose, they will drop below BYU in the BCS. The Vols are currently No. 14 in the BCS standings, while Hawaii is No. 12, Arizona State No. 13 and Oregon No. 17. Losses by all four of those teams should be enough to get the Cougars to No. 16.
4. Of course this is all moot if BYU loses to San Diego State Saturday afternoon. The Cougs must get to 10-2 overall and win impressively over the Aztecs. A squeeker may not be enough to move up the requisite three spots in the BCS.
The likelihood of all this? Well, BYU should beat the Aztecs and LSU should beat Tennessee. It won't be that surprising for Oregon State to beat slumping Oregon and surging Arizona to upset ASU. But UCLA over USC for the second straight year and Washington over Hawaii on the islands is probably asking too much. End result: Close but not quite for the Cougars' BCS dreams.

Plan B: There's still a chance Boise State could land a spot in the Las Vegas Bowl opposite BYU, and the Cougars and Broncos tangling in Sam Boyd Stadium on Dec. 22 isn't a bad consolation prize.

As for Saturday's game at SDSU, an important reminder: BYU's last conference road loss came in Qualcomm Stadium in 2005. Of course, this Cougar team is far superior to that one. And if TCU's mediorce offense can light up the Aztecs defense, BYU should have no trouble scoring points. SDSU will score, but not enough to keep it close in the second half. Look for BYU to win, 34-17.
Don't forget to vote in The Cougar Zone poll and check out this week's Fully Invested audio show: http://www.mediafire.com/?ernmcyhytys
Until next time ...