After nailing the BYU-UNI outcome last week, I venture for another perfect score prediction as the Cougars travel to Washington to face the reeling Washington Huskies. Seattle Times writer Jerry Brewer had a great column on the current state of UW football. My favorite section:
In one peculiar moment Monday, (Jake) Locker said he thought the team may have been "overconfident" entering the Oregon game. He thought it might've contributed to the flat performance and said, "We have to understand we can't just show up and beat anybody."
Prodigies say the darnedest things. If a few good weeks of practice made the Huskies overconfident, then America's youth really do have a problem with entitlement.
The only thing more humorous than Locker's words was the vote of confidence Willingham gave to punter Jared Ballman, who struggled against Oregon: "I think he can do some exciting punting."
Hopefully BYU's defense allows Ballman the chance to do plenty of "exciting punting" on Saturday. My guess? Locker will get his yards against a young BYU defense. But he won't be able to consistently move the chains enough to generate long scoring drives.
BYU will give up between 17-30 points in this one. The key will be the Cougar offense finding a rhythm against a Pac-1o team, even one as bad as UW. If Harvey and Fui get going, BYU will have too many weapons and will outpoint the Huskies. If not, we're in for a barnburner.
Beat the Huskies, and things get really interesting with a ranked -- and suddenly more scary -- UCLA team coming to town Sept. 13. A 3-0 BYU will surely be flirting with the Top 10. But to be 3-0, you have to be 2-0 first. And Saturday's game is no gimmee, considering the venue and BYU's recent nonconference road struggles.
My call: BYU 31, Washington 24. The game kicks at 1 p.m. MT on FSN. Enjoy.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Monday, September 1, 2008
5 Reasons BYU wins/loses at UW
This is the big one. Actually, it's the first of four "Big Ones" on BYU's 2008 football schedule. On the Quest for Perfection, the biggest obstacles to an unbeaten record and BCS bid are Washington, UCLA, TCU and Utah. The first of those four takes place this Saturday in Seattle, a place the Cougars are 0-3 all time.
Below are five reasons BYU will lose to the Huskies and five reasons the Cougars move to 2-0.
2. Jake Locker. Mobile quarterbacks can give a defense headaches, especially a defense as green as BYU's. The Cougars made a couple key assignments miscues against Northern Iowa. If that happens again, UW could put up some points Saturday.
3. Overconfidence. It's apparent, and it's been admitted by coaches and players, that BYU was overconfident entering the UNI game. Another "cruise-control" effort or even a few plays of going through the motions could bring a premature end to an unbeaten run.
4. Turnovers. Five fumbles (four lost) against the I-AA Panthers is a bad sign. Against a more talented Husky team, it could be fatal. BYU needs a healthy Harvey Unga all game to avoid having backups in the game too often. Against UNI, J.J. Diluigi and Wayne Latu coughed up the ball to kill promising drives into UNI territory.
5. Pac-10 officials: If the game is remotely close, BYU could be in trouble as Washington will get the bulk of the breaks and the calls. One or two plays/calls could spell the difference if this road opener is tight in the fourth quarter.
2. Max Hall. Hall was crisp and sharp in the opener, outside of a couple errant throws to Austin Collie. Going 34 of 41 for nearly 500 yards in an opener is a sign of incredible things to come for the junior, who could pick apart UW's secondary all afternoon.
3. Weapons. UW's defense struggled to stop Oregon's high-powered offense. While BYU lacks the team speed of the Ducks, the Cougars actually have more weapons and more experience offensively than Oregon. A questionable Husky defense will have nightmares matching up with Unga, Collie, Pitta and Fui Vakapuna, who adds one more weapon after sitting out the opener.
4. Lessons learned. Bronco Mendenhall said he was grateful for the miscues against UNI. He's hoping a humble BYU team comes to practice ready to listen and learn this week. If it happens, BYU will be prepared and play with an edge on Saturday.
5. UW issues. Washington looked confused and unprepared against Oregon, outside of some decent play in the second quarter. With problems on offense and defense, a coach on the hot seat in Tyrone Willingham and a restless fan base, the Huskies just aren't in a position to beat BYU right now. A few early miscues could bring out the boo birds and aid the Cougar cause.
Below are five reasons BYU will lose to the Huskies and five reasons the Cougars move to 2-0.
5 Reasons BYU loses at Washington
1. History: Not only is BYU winless in its previous trips to Washington (including the lone loss in a 14-1 season in 1996), but the Cougars have lost NINE straight nonconference road games. History is not on the Y's side this week.2. Jake Locker. Mobile quarterbacks can give a defense headaches, especially a defense as green as BYU's. The Cougars made a couple key assignments miscues against Northern Iowa. If that happens again, UW could put up some points Saturday.
3. Overconfidence. It's apparent, and it's been admitted by coaches and players, that BYU was overconfident entering the UNI game. Another "cruise-control" effort or even a few plays of going through the motions could bring a premature end to an unbeaten run.
4. Turnovers. Five fumbles (four lost) against the I-AA Panthers is a bad sign. Against a more talented Husky team, it could be fatal. BYU needs a healthy Harvey Unga all game to avoid having backups in the game too often. Against UNI, J.J. Diluigi and Wayne Latu coughed up the ball to kill promising drives into UNI territory.
5. Pac-10 officials: If the game is remotely close, BYU could be in trouble as Washington will get the bulk of the breaks and the calls. One or two plays/calls could spell the difference if this road opener is tight in the fourth quarter.
5 reasons BYU wins at Washington
1. They're due. The Cougars finally appear to have the experience and the coaching to overcome their early-season road woes. A stellar performance in Seattle puts those demons to bed once and for all.2. Max Hall. Hall was crisp and sharp in the opener, outside of a couple errant throws to Austin Collie. Going 34 of 41 for nearly 500 yards in an opener is a sign of incredible things to come for the junior, who could pick apart UW's secondary all afternoon.
3. Weapons. UW's defense struggled to stop Oregon's high-powered offense. While BYU lacks the team speed of the Ducks, the Cougars actually have more weapons and more experience offensively than Oregon. A questionable Husky defense will have nightmares matching up with Unga, Collie, Pitta and Fui Vakapuna, who adds one more weapon after sitting out the opener.
4. Lessons learned. Bronco Mendenhall said he was grateful for the miscues against UNI. He's hoping a humble BYU team comes to practice ready to listen and learn this week. If it happens, BYU will be prepared and play with an edge on Saturday.
5. UW issues. Washington looked confused and unprepared against Oregon, outside of some decent play in the second quarter. With problems on offense and defense, a coach on the hot seat in Tyrone Willingham and a restless fan base, the Huskies just aren't in a position to beat BYU right now. A few early miscues could bring out the boo birds and aid the Cougar cause.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
A few things that'll happen Saturday
I've already written my opening-game predictions on this page. This entry is about specific things I believe will happen on Saturday as BYU tangles with UNI to open a promising 2008 campaign.
Here's five things that'll happen between 4 and 7:30 p.m. MDT Saturday.
1. Vic So'oto will have a sack, but will also miss an assignment that leads to a long play by Northern Iowa.
2. O'Neil Chambers will mishandle and drop one kickoff and/or fumble the ball on a return. Greg Wrubell has warned us about how Chambers catches the ball up around the face mask. Chambers may fulfill his guarantee of a kickoff/punt return for a TD this fall, and he'll have one great return Saturday. But he'll also commit a key miscue.
3. Austin Collie will take five snaps at QB. He'll run four times and throw once with some success.
4. BYU will lose one offensive lineman for the game, but not the season-ending variety of injury.
5. UNI quarterback Pat Grace will have more success running than he does throwing. RB Corey Lewis will run for 80-90 yards and one score as UNI reaches double-figure scoring.
Most importantly, BYU wins the game. Today I'll say 42-17.
Here's five things that'll happen between 4 and 7:30 p.m. MDT Saturday.
1. Vic So'oto will have a sack, but will also miss an assignment that leads to a long play by Northern Iowa.
2. O'Neil Chambers will mishandle and drop one kickoff and/or fumble the ball on a return. Greg Wrubell has warned us about how Chambers catches the ball up around the face mask. Chambers may fulfill his guarantee of a kickoff/punt return for a TD this fall, and he'll have one great return Saturday. But he'll also commit a key miscue.
3. Austin Collie will take five snaps at QB. He'll run four times and throw once with some success.
4. BYU will lose one offensive lineman for the game, but not the season-ending variety of injury.
5. UNI quarterback Pat Grace will have more success running than he does throwing. RB Corey Lewis will run for 80-90 yards and one score as UNI reaches double-figure scoring.
Most importantly, BYU wins the game. Today I'll say 42-17.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Game 1: BYU-UNI prediction
Game week is here. The opener is usually the most-anticipated game of the season. With it being Northern Iowa this year, that takes a little off the first-game luster and has folks looking ahead to Washington and UCLA. But UNI is good. At today's media luncheon, linebacker David Nixon called Panthers running back Corey Lewis the best RB the Cougars will face this season. He also praised receiver Johnny Gray. Both are preseason All-Americans in the Football Championship Subdivision.
While Bronco Mendenhall compares UNI to Eastern Washington, a team BYU beat 42-7 last year, it's important to remember that EWU trailed just 14-7 late in the first half. UNI is better than EWU and will hang around for much of the opening half. But not for the whole game.
Here's how I see the game going, with a quarter-by-quarter scoring breakdown.
End of first quarter
BYU 10, UNI 7.
Cougars score early and add a Mitch Payne field goal. But a defensive miscue lets Gray get free for a score.
End of first half
BYU 24,UNI 7
Cougars start to take control with balanced offense. Defense settles in. 14-0 edge for Cougs in quarter No. 2.
End of third quarter
BYU 34, UNI 10
Panthers add a field goal, but Cougars score 10 more.
Final score
BYU 41, UNI 17
Lewis breaks off big run for Panthers' second TD. Cougs win big in opener.
I played the game out video-game style today and BYU won 49-21. Max Hall went 13-for-25 for 357 yards and four touchdowns. Lewis scored all three of UNI's TDs, ripping off some long runs. But BYU ran well with Unga and, other than some surprising picks thrown by Hall, controlled the game. It was tied 14-14 at one point, though.
Here's to Saturday. 4 p.m. The Mtn. (channel 616 on DirecTV).
While Bronco Mendenhall compares UNI to Eastern Washington, a team BYU beat 42-7 last year, it's important to remember that EWU trailed just 14-7 late in the first half. UNI is better than EWU and will hang around for much of the opening half. But not for the whole game.
Here's how I see the game going, with a quarter-by-quarter scoring breakdown.
End of first quarter
BYU 10, UNI 7.
Cougars score early and add a Mitch Payne field goal. But a defensive miscue lets Gray get free for a score.
End of first half
BYU 24,UNI 7
Cougars start to take control with balanced offense. Defense settles in. 14-0 edge for Cougs in quarter No. 2.
End of third quarter
BYU 34, UNI 10
Panthers add a field goal, but Cougars score 10 more.
Final score
BYU 41, UNI 17
Lewis breaks off big run for Panthers' second TD. Cougs win big in opener.
I played the game out video-game style today and BYU won 49-21. Max Hall went 13-for-25 for 357 yards and four touchdowns. Lewis scored all three of UNI's TDs, ripping off some long runs. But BYU ran well with Unga and, other than some surprising picks thrown by Hall, controlled the game. It was tied 14-14 at one point, though.
Here's to Saturday. 4 p.m. The Mtn. (channel 616 on DirecTV).
Sunday, August 17, 2008
This'll get you pumped
Every year, right about late May or early June, I get whipped into a Cougar football frenzy. Just when a think I can't wait any longer, fall camp begins. And that's great for a week or so, but somewhere during Week 2 of fall camp, the itch for camp to end and the season to begin reaches unbearable levels.
Then came this exchange between Bronco Mendenhall and the media after Saturday's second fall camp scrimmage. If this doesn't get you pumped for Aug. 30, nothing will.
Greg Wrubell: "If you were a defensive coordinator lining up against (Dennis) Pitta and (Andrew) George week to week, your thoughts?"
Bronco: "Depends on if Harvey (Unga's) in the game or not. And if Harvey's in the game, you'll have problems."
Wrubell: "And you'll have Harvey in games."
Bronco: "Exactly right. So I think people are going to have problems."
Holy buckets. BYU's offense is going to be good. Scary good. Hearing this exchange sent me back to my the 2007 Cougar Diary highlight DVD. Then I put up my BYU flag outside my home (a tradition on Game Day) just to get a look at it. Then I got my kids pumped and educated for Aug. 30.
Less than two weeks to go. BYU. Northern Iowa. Lavell Edwards Stadium. It all begins. Our Quest shirts have arrived. DirecTV's been installed. It's go time.
I, for one, can't wait.
Then came this exchange between Bronco Mendenhall and the media after Saturday's second fall camp scrimmage. If this doesn't get you pumped for Aug. 30, nothing will.
Greg Wrubell: "If you were a defensive coordinator lining up against (Dennis) Pitta and (Andrew) George week to week, your thoughts?"
Bronco: "Depends on if Harvey (Unga's) in the game or not. And if Harvey's in the game, you'll have problems."
Wrubell: "And you'll have Harvey in games."
Bronco: "Exactly right. So I think people are going to have problems."
Holy buckets. BYU's offense is going to be good. Scary good. Hearing this exchange sent me back to my the 2007 Cougar Diary highlight DVD. Then I put up my BYU flag outside my home (a tradition on Game Day) just to get a look at it. Then I got my kids pumped and educated for Aug. 30.
Less than two weeks to go. BYU. Northern Iowa. Lavell Edwards Stadium. It all begins. Our Quest shirts have arrived. DirecTV's been installed. It's go time.
I, for one, can't wait.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Foes could be friends for Cougars
Two main factors will decide whether BYU plays in a big-money BCS bowl game this winter. First and foremost is how the Cougars themselves play. But second, is how their opponents fare against other teams. BYU ascension in the polls could be affected by the successes or failures of the teams on their 2008 slate.
Here's how The Cougar Zone sees BYU's opponents faring this season. By season's end, we'll be sure to hear about how the Cougars' two wins over Pac-10 teams don't mean much since both teams have losing records. Hopefully, BYU is firmly in the Top 10 by then and can prove itself in a BCS game.
Northern Iowa (10-2)
Wins: South Dakota, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Nicholls State, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Southern Utah
Losses: BYU, North Dakota State
Washington (5-7)
Wins: Stanford, Oregon State, Notre Dame, UCLA, Washington State
Losses: Oregon, BYU, Oklahoma, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, California
UCLA (5-7)
Wins: Arizona, Fresno State, Washington State, Stanford, Oregon State
Losses: Tennessee, BYU, Oregon, California, Washington, Arizona State, USC
Wyoming (7-5)
Wins: Ohio, Air Force, North Dakota State, Bowling Green, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Losses: BYU, New Mexico, Utah, TCU, Tennessee
Utah State (3-9)
Wins: Idaho, San Jose State, New Mexico State
Losses: UNLV, Oregon, Utah, BYU, Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State, Louisiana Tech
New Mexico (7-5)
Wins: Texas A&M, New Mexico State, Wyoming, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State, Utah
Losses: TCU, Arizona, Tulsa, BYU, Air Force
TCU (9-3)
Wins: New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford, SMU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, Air Force
Losses: Oklahoma, BYU, Utah
UNLV (4-8)
Wins: Utah State, Iowa State, Colorado State, San Diego State
Losses: Utah, Arizona State, Nevada, Air Force, BYU, TCU, New Mexico, Wyoming
Colorado State (2-10)
Wins: Sacramento State, San Diego State
Losses: Colorado, Houston, California, UNLV, TCU, Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force
San Diego State (4-8)
Wins: Cal Poly, San Jose State, Idaho, Air Force
Losses: Notre Dame, TCU, New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, BYU, Utah, UNLV
Air Force (5-7)
Wins: Southern Utah, Navy, UNLV, Army, Colorado State
Losses: Wyoming, Houston, Utah, San Diego State, New Mexico, BYU, TCU
Utah (10-2)
Wins: Michigan, UNLV, Utah State, Air Force, Weber State, Wyoming, Colorado State, TCU, San Diego State
Losses: New Mexico, BYU
Here's how The Cougar Zone sees BYU's opponents faring this season. By season's end, we'll be sure to hear about how the Cougars' two wins over Pac-10 teams don't mean much since both teams have losing records. Hopefully, BYU is firmly in the Top 10 by then and can prove itself in a BCS game.
Northern Iowa (10-2)
Wins: South Dakota, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Nicholls State, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Indiana State, Missouri State, Southern Utah
Losses: BYU, North Dakota State
Washington (5-7)
Wins: Stanford, Oregon State, Notre Dame, UCLA, Washington State
Losses: Oregon, BYU, Oklahoma, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, California
UCLA (5-7)
Wins: Arizona, Fresno State, Washington State, Stanford, Oregon State
Losses: Tennessee, BYU, Oregon, California, Washington, Arizona State, USC
Wyoming (7-5)
Wins: Ohio, Air Force, North Dakota State, Bowling Green, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State
Losses: BYU, New Mexico, Utah, TCU, Tennessee
Utah State (3-9)
Wins: Idaho, San Jose State, New Mexico State
Losses: UNLV, Oregon, Utah, BYU, Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, Boise State, Louisiana Tech
New Mexico (7-5)
Wins: Texas A&M, New Mexico State, Wyoming, San Diego State, UNLV, Colorado State, Utah
Losses: TCU, Arizona, Tulsa, BYU, Air Force
TCU (9-3)
Wins: New Mexico, Stephen F. Austin, Stanford, SMU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, UNLV, Air Force
Losses: Oklahoma, BYU, Utah
UNLV (4-8)
Wins: Utah State, Iowa State, Colorado State, San Diego State
Losses: Utah, Arizona State, Nevada, Air Force, BYU, TCU, New Mexico, Wyoming
Colorado State (2-10)
Wins: Sacramento State, San Diego State
Losses: Colorado, Houston, California, UNLV, TCU, Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force
San Diego State (4-8)
Wins: Cal Poly, San Jose State, Idaho, Air Force
Losses: Notre Dame, TCU, New Mexico, Colorado State, Wyoming, BYU, Utah, UNLV
Air Force (5-7)
Wins: Southern Utah, Navy, UNLV, Army, Colorado State
Losses: Wyoming, Houston, Utah, San Diego State, New Mexico, BYU, TCU
Utah (10-2)
Wins: Michigan, UNLV, Utah State, Air Force, Weber State, Wyoming, Colorado State, TCU, San Diego State
Losses: New Mexico, BYU
Friday, August 1, 2008
Passing the baton
The wait is over. Saturday, the Cougars kick off fall camp and the famine of BYU football information will officially end. Yes, we still have to wait a few weeks for a real game, but that wait is more manageable with daily BYU info filling the Web.
For most of this summer, The CougarZone has been the most updated BYU blog in the Internet. But with fall camp beginning, it's time to take a back seat. For your daily camp fix, I recommend Greg Wrubell's Cougar Tracks.
While Greg's Daily Download is a thing of the past, his blog with feature camp reports and audio from his daily interviews.
Your next best bet in Jay Drew's Salt Lake Tribune blog. Of the three major papers covering the Cougs, Jay has put the Trib in front this summer with the number of blog entries. The Deseret News and Daily Herald, of course, are great sources as well, with the Herald providing the most regular print coverage.
We now know where BYU will begin the regular season in one of the polls that counts. With a No. 17 spot, the Cougars are in a great position to reach the Top 12 in the BCS standings, even with an early loss.
But here's to perfection.
Once the season gets going, The CougarZone wants to deliver what you most want to see/hear. Last fall, we offered the weekly Fully Invested audio show, a 10-15 minute program including sound bites from Bronco Mendenhall's media luncheon and commentary on the previous game and the coming one.
If you'd like to see it again, just vote in our poll. If you'd rather see something else, let us know.
The time is not far distant. Thanks for reading this summer. Check back often and enjoy fall camp.
For most of this summer, The CougarZone has been the most updated BYU blog in the Internet. But with fall camp beginning, it's time to take a back seat. For your daily camp fix, I recommend Greg Wrubell's Cougar Tracks.
While Greg's Daily Download is a thing of the past, his blog with feature camp reports and audio from his daily interviews.
Your next best bet in Jay Drew's Salt Lake Tribune blog. Of the three major papers covering the Cougs, Jay has put the Trib in front this summer with the number of blog entries. The Deseret News and Daily Herald, of course, are great sources as well, with the Herald providing the most regular print coverage.
We now know where BYU will begin the regular season in one of the polls that counts. With a No. 17 spot, the Cougars are in a great position to reach the Top 12 in the BCS standings, even with an early loss.
But here's to perfection.
Once the season gets going, The CougarZone wants to deliver what you most want to see/hear. Last fall, we offered the weekly Fully Invested audio show, a 10-15 minute program including sound bites from Bronco Mendenhall's media luncheon and commentary on the previous game and the coming one.
If you'd like to see it again, just vote in our poll. If you'd rather see something else, let us know.
The time is not far distant. Thanks for reading this summer. Check back often and enjoy fall camp.
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