Want the inside scoop on the 2009 season? Talk to the guys who cover the Cougars for a living. The top three BYU beat writers in the Beehive State were kind enough to answer my questions on the upcoming season.
Here's what Jeff Call (Deseret News), Jay Drew (Salt Lake Tribune) and Darnell Dickson, my former boss at the Daily Herald, had to say on some of the key issues that will shape the Cougars campaign.
Which game on the schedule is most important to BYU’s success in 2009?
Jeff Call, Desert News: Utah
Jay Drew, Salt Lake Tribune: I am going to say Florida State, because I think that game will set the tone for the rest of the year. The Cougars will likely be 1-1 (losing to Oklahoma, beating Tulane) heading into that game, their home opener, and what happens Sept. 19 in Provo will go a long way in determining what kind of season the Cougs have.
Darnell Dickson, Daily Herald: Got to be TCU at BYU on Oct. 24. It will be BYU’s first true MWC test and after getting blasted last year, the Cougars have a score to settle.
Which home game is the toughest: Florida State, TCU or Utah?
Jeff Call: Utah
Jay Drew: The Utah game will be the toughest. It always is. Utah gets up to play BYU, regardless of records, place or anything else.
Darnell Dickson: Always Utah. The past six games against the Utes at LES have been decided by seven points or less.
Which receiver will step up to fill the shoes of Austin Collie?
Jeff Call: McKay Jacobson
Jay Drew: I don’t see a single receiver stepping up to replace Collie on his own. However, the leading receiver on the team will be McKay Jacobson.
Darnell Dickson: You can’t fill those shoes with just one guy. O’Neill Chambers and McKay Jacobsen will both have to step up and be impact players.
Will BYU’s defense be better in 2009 than 2008?
Jeff Call: Yes, but with Oklahoma on the schedule, it might not show statistically.
Jay Drew: I would have said yes a month ago, but the news that Russell Tialavea is going on a mission means the defensive line will have depth concerns. I would say the defense will be about the same as last year. The safeties will be better, but the linebackers will struggle mightily to replace David Nixon.
Darnell Dickson: The Cougars have lost two starting defensive linemen to missions and the cornerback spot is still a huge question mark. So my answer right now would be “no.”
How will BYU finish the regular season record wise?
Jeff Call: 9-3
Jay Drew: 9-3
Darnell Dickson: I think a 9- or 10-win season would be a huge success in 2009.
Which player will rise up to become a star this season?
Jeff Call: Safety Andrew Rich
Jay Drew: Jacobson is the obvious choice, but I think RB Malosi Te’o is going to be a factor before the season is over.
Darnell Dickson: Sophomore outside linebacker Jordan Pendleton, who is learning a new position but has all the physical tools.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Monday, June 1, 2009
OU equals U.O. (Unideal Opener)
While Oklahoma (2009 opener) and Northern Iowa (2008 opener) are light years a part as far as football programs go, they do share one thing in common. Both represent far from ideal season openers for the BYU football team.
BYU had a string of ideal openers from 2002 to 2007, but that ended with Northern Iowa and continues with the Sooners. It's an unfortunate trend as the season opener is the most hyped game of the season. It's the only game that has months of lead-up time. It's the game Cougar fans spend the entire summer pining for.
So, what makes an ideal season opener? I see four criteria:
1. A toss-up game. A 50-50 matchup in which the outcome could easily go either way means the hype and ancipation reach much higher levels. When BYU is neither a clear favorite (as in 2008) or a heavy underdog (as in 2009), the buildup to the season opener is far superior.
2. A BCS opponent. Taking on a team from a BCS conference is key. Facing a FCS (Division I-AA) team or someone like Tulane takes the luster off the opener.
3. National television: Beating a BCS foe before the eyes of the nation gives BYU an important opportunity to gain national respect and rise in the rankings before the MWC slate begins.
4. Home sweet home: Playing a LaVell Edwards Stadium means BYU is nearly assured of opening the season 1-0. The Cougars have lost four straight road season openers, but are 8-2 in their last 10 home season openers.
When a game fits all four criteria, it's an ideal season opener. Three of four makes in nearly ideal. Anything less falls into the unideal category. Here's a look at where BYU's recent season openers fall on this scale.
2009: BYU vs. Oklahoma (At Arlington, Texas), Unideal (two of four criteria met)
2008: BYU vs. Northern Iowa (LES), Unideal (two of four)
2007: BYU vs. Arizona, Ideal (four of four)
2006: BYU at Arizona, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2005: BYU vs. Boston College, Ideal (four of four)
2004: BYU vs. Notre Dame, Ideal (four of four)
2003: BYU vs. Georgia Tech, Ideal (four of four)
2002: BYU vs. Syracuse, Ideal (four of four)
2001: BYU vs. Tulane, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2000: BYU at Florida State, Unideal (two of four)
Conclusion: Is there upside to the 2009 opener? Certainly. A win would put BYU in the Top 15 of the national polls and would help the Cougars supplant Boise State, TCU and Utah as the early front runner for a non-BCS team most likely to make a BCS game. But the truth is, BYU will be at least a 17-point underdog and will likely start the season 0-1. That makes the home opener with Florida State -- which would qualify as an ideal season opener -- that much bigger. Starting 1-2 (or 0-3 with an upset loss at Tulane) would be devastating.
BYU had a string of ideal openers from 2002 to 2007, but that ended with Northern Iowa and continues with the Sooners. It's an unfortunate trend as the season opener is the most hyped game of the season. It's the only game that has months of lead-up time. It's the game Cougar fans spend the entire summer pining for.
So, what makes an ideal season opener? I see four criteria:
1. A toss-up game. A 50-50 matchup in which the outcome could easily go either way means the hype and ancipation reach much higher levels. When BYU is neither a clear favorite (as in 2008) or a heavy underdog (as in 2009), the buildup to the season opener is far superior.
2. A BCS opponent. Taking on a team from a BCS conference is key. Facing a FCS (Division I-AA) team or someone like Tulane takes the luster off the opener.
3. National television: Beating a BCS foe before the eyes of the nation gives BYU an important opportunity to gain national respect and rise in the rankings before the MWC slate begins.
4. Home sweet home: Playing a LaVell Edwards Stadium means BYU is nearly assured of opening the season 1-0. The Cougars have lost four straight road season openers, but are 8-2 in their last 10 home season openers.
When a game fits all four criteria, it's an ideal season opener. Three of four makes in nearly ideal. Anything less falls into the unideal category. Here's a look at where BYU's recent season openers fall on this scale.
2009: BYU vs. Oklahoma (At Arlington, Texas), Unideal (two of four criteria met)
2008: BYU vs. Northern Iowa (LES), Unideal (two of four)
2007: BYU vs. Arizona, Ideal (four of four)
2006: BYU at Arizona, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2005: BYU vs. Boston College, Ideal (four of four)
2004: BYU vs. Notre Dame, Ideal (four of four)
2003: BYU vs. Georgia Tech, Ideal (four of four)
2002: BYU vs. Syracuse, Ideal (four of four)
2001: BYU vs. Tulane, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2000: BYU at Florida State, Unideal (two of four)
Conclusion: Is there upside to the 2009 opener? Certainly. A win would put BYU in the Top 15 of the national polls and would help the Cougars supplant Boise State, TCU and Utah as the early front runner for a non-BCS team most likely to make a BCS game. But the truth is, BYU will be at least a 17-point underdog and will likely start the season 0-1. That makes the home opener with Florida State -- which would qualify as an ideal season opener -- that much bigger. Starting 1-2 (or 0-3 with an upset loss at Tulane) would be devastating.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
One man's take on the 2009 season
Late May is here and thus it's far too early (meaning, it's the perfect time) to begin forecasting the 2009 BYU football season. The schedule is intriguiging, the team a bit of a mystery after last season's fade and some key losses. But here's one man's uneducated guess as how things will unfold this fall.
Sept. 5: BYU vs. Oklahoma
Max Hall is sacked six times by OU's defense as the new Cougar O-line has some issues. Still, Hall passes for 277 yards and two scores. But BYU's running game is largley grounded and the defense can't stop the Sooners' prolific passing game.
Pick: Oklahoma 38, BYU 17
Sept. 12: BYU at Tulane
Cougars won't drop 70 on the Green Wave this time around (remember Crowton's debut), but the offense does explode. Harvey Unga goes for 1oo-plus on the ground and Dennis Pitta snags two TD catches.
Pick: BYU 38, Tulane 20
Sept. 19: Florida State at BYU
BYU opens the home slate with a hard-fought clash against the Seminoles. Balance on offense and the ever-improving play of the linebacking core lifts the Cougs.
Pick: BYU 27, FSU 23
Sept. 26: Colorado State at BYU
Rams are improving and won't go quietly. But BYU is simply too tough for most MWC teams at LES. Hall piles up 400 through the air and McKay Jacobson has a breakout game.
Pick: BYU 41, CSU 23
Oct. 2: Utah State at BYU
Cougars cap three-game home stand in style and put folks in a good mood for Conference weekend with a runaway win over the Aggies.
Pick: BYU 38, USU 13
Oct. 10: BYU at UNLV
Mike Sanford will continue to rub folks the wrong way and his Rebels will underachieve. Despite that, BYU struggles in this one. Manase Tonga makes key plays in the fourth quarter to key a win.
Pick: BYU 27, UNLV 20
Oct. 17: BYU at San Diego State
BYU offense finds its stride in sunny San Diego. Aztecs start to quit on yet another coach.
Pick: BYU 48, SDSU 17
Oct. 24: TCU at BYU
Horned Frogs spoil homecoming as BYU can't find a way to move the ball consistently. Much closer than 2008 embarrassment in Fort Worth, but Cougars fall.
Pick: TCU 31, BYU 20
Nov. 7: BYU at Wyoming
Coming off a bye week, Cougars start slow, but roll after first quarter. Wyoming puts up little resistance after intermission.
Pick: BYU 40, Wyoming 17
Nov. 14: BYU at New Mexico
A tough stretch of four road games in five outings ends with a tight game in Albuquerque. Hall throws two picks and a painful fumble from J.J. Diluigi costs the Cougars late.
Pick: UNM 31, BYU 30
Nov. 21: Air Force at BYU
Career days for Andrew George and O'Neill Chambers as BYU rebounds nicely. Vic So'oto finding stride at linebacker, tallying 12 tackles.
Pick: BYU 44, Air Force 20
Nov. 28: Utah at BYU
Utes come in with three losses and no BCS dreams. With an outside shot at sharing the MWC title, BYU earns third win in four years over Utah.
Pick: BYU 31, Utah 23
BYU winds up 9-3 overall and 6-2 in MWC play. TCU wins conference crown, while Utes slip to third place. Cougars spend some pre-Christmas days in San Diego, playing in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Sept. 5: BYU vs. Oklahoma
Max Hall is sacked six times by OU's defense as the new Cougar O-line has some issues. Still, Hall passes for 277 yards and two scores. But BYU's running game is largley grounded and the defense can't stop the Sooners' prolific passing game.
Pick: Oklahoma 38, BYU 17
Sept. 12: BYU at Tulane
Cougars won't drop 70 on the Green Wave this time around (remember Crowton's debut), but the offense does explode. Harvey Unga goes for 1oo-plus on the ground and Dennis Pitta snags two TD catches.
Pick: BYU 38, Tulane 20
Sept. 19: Florida State at BYU
BYU opens the home slate with a hard-fought clash against the Seminoles. Balance on offense and the ever-improving play of the linebacking core lifts the Cougs.
Pick: BYU 27, FSU 23
Sept. 26: Colorado State at BYU
Rams are improving and won't go quietly. But BYU is simply too tough for most MWC teams at LES. Hall piles up 400 through the air and McKay Jacobson has a breakout game.
Pick: BYU 41, CSU 23
Oct. 2: Utah State at BYU
Cougars cap three-game home stand in style and put folks in a good mood for Conference weekend with a runaway win over the Aggies.
Pick: BYU 38, USU 13
Oct. 10: BYU at UNLV
Mike Sanford will continue to rub folks the wrong way and his Rebels will underachieve. Despite that, BYU struggles in this one. Manase Tonga makes key plays in the fourth quarter to key a win.
Pick: BYU 27, UNLV 20
Oct. 17: BYU at San Diego State
BYU offense finds its stride in sunny San Diego. Aztecs start to quit on yet another coach.
Pick: BYU 48, SDSU 17
Oct. 24: TCU at BYU
Horned Frogs spoil homecoming as BYU can't find a way to move the ball consistently. Much closer than 2008 embarrassment in Fort Worth, but Cougars fall.
Pick: TCU 31, BYU 20
Nov. 7: BYU at Wyoming
Coming off a bye week, Cougars start slow, but roll after first quarter. Wyoming puts up little resistance after intermission.
Pick: BYU 40, Wyoming 17
Nov. 14: BYU at New Mexico
A tough stretch of four road games in five outings ends with a tight game in Albuquerque. Hall throws two picks and a painful fumble from J.J. Diluigi costs the Cougars late.
Pick: UNM 31, BYU 30
Nov. 21: Air Force at BYU
Career days for Andrew George and O'Neill Chambers as BYU rebounds nicely. Vic So'oto finding stride at linebacker, tallying 12 tackles.
Pick: BYU 44, Air Force 20
Nov. 28: Utah at BYU
Utes come in with three losses and no BCS dreams. With an outside shot at sharing the MWC title, BYU earns third win in four years over Utah.
Pick: BYU 31, Utah 23
BYU winds up 9-3 overall and 6-2 in MWC play. TCU wins conference crown, while Utes slip to third place. Cougars spend some pre-Christmas days in San Diego, playing in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Prepping for the Madness
The best event in sports is only weeks away. The question: Will BYU be a part of it?
Bracketologists have had BYU among the "last four in" to the NCAA Tournament field for the past few weeks and Saturday's setback to UNLV exacerbates the situation.
After another frustrating setback to the Rebels in Las Vegas, the Cougars head to Cox Arena, a place that's proven equally bad for BYU in recent seasons.
But San Diego State's Billy White is sidelined for this one and BYU can't let a key opportunity pass by. Win and the Cougars have a great shot to share the league crown and finish the regular season with a four-game winning streak. Do that and BYU winds up 24-6 overall and 12-4 in a tough MWC.
Not too shabby.
But Tuesday night is huge. BYU should beat Utah in Provo, get past Wyoming in Laramie and paste Air Force at home. That would give the Cougars wins in 9 of their last 10 outings entering the MWC tourney.
In actuality, taking the No. 2 seed in the tourney is ideal. Let Utah have the No. 1 spot and face UNLV in the semis. As the No. 2 seed, BYU likely gets TCU or Wyoming in Round 1. Easy win. Then it's San Diego State or New Mexico in the semis, rather than UNLV. Tough, but better than facing the Rebels, who likely beat Utah on the other side of the bracket.
We're likely looking at another BYU-UNLV tourney title tilt. But if BYU comes in 26-6, it should have a bid locked up.
We'll see how it plays out.
Let the madness begin.
Bracketologists have had BYU among the "last four in" to the NCAA Tournament field for the past few weeks and Saturday's setback to UNLV exacerbates the situation.
After another frustrating setback to the Rebels in Las Vegas, the Cougars head to Cox Arena, a place that's proven equally bad for BYU in recent seasons.
But San Diego State's Billy White is sidelined for this one and BYU can't let a key opportunity pass by. Win and the Cougars have a great shot to share the league crown and finish the regular season with a four-game winning streak. Do that and BYU winds up 24-6 overall and 12-4 in a tough MWC.
Not too shabby.
But Tuesday night is huge. BYU should beat Utah in Provo, get past Wyoming in Laramie and paste Air Force at home. That would give the Cougars wins in 9 of their last 10 outings entering the MWC tourney.
In actuality, taking the No. 2 seed in the tourney is ideal. Let Utah have the No. 1 spot and face UNLV in the semis. As the No. 2 seed, BYU likely gets TCU or Wyoming in Round 1. Easy win. Then it's San Diego State or New Mexico in the semis, rather than UNLV. Tough, but better than facing the Rebels, who likely beat Utah on the other side of the bracket.
We're likely looking at another BYU-UNLV tourney title tilt. But if BYU comes in 26-6, it should have a bid locked up.
We'll see how it plays out.
Let the madness begin.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Best BYU sports weekend of the year
Every year during the short span when BYU's football and basketball seasons overlap, we are treated to one weekend when both squads play big games.
In 2007, it was BYU's fourth-and-18 win over Utah in the gridiron, coinciding with the BYU hoopsters upsetting No. 6 Louisville and taking No. 1 North Carolina to the wire during a hardwood tourney in Las Vegas.
The 2008 offering comes Saturday as the 16th-ranked BYU football team plays Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl and the unbeaten basketball Cougars face No. 18 Arizona State at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
If Lee Cummand and company can beat the Sun Devils, the Cougars will vault into the Top 25 with an 11-0 mark and likely be ranked in the Top 20 when they host No. 10 Wake Forest on Jan. 3. That'll be a fun one.
BYU's football team looks to end on a positive note and earn a third straight 11-win season against an Arizona team that runs similar offensive and defensive schemes to the Cougars.
The B-ball tips at 2:30 p.m. on FSN. The gridders take the field at 6 p.m. on ESPN.
It's a feast worthy of the holiday season. And if the Cougars go 2-0 on the day, we'll all be wearing by smiles when we show up to church Sunday.
Enjoy.
In 2007, it was BYU's fourth-and-18 win over Utah in the gridiron, coinciding with the BYU hoopsters upsetting No. 6 Louisville and taking No. 1 North Carolina to the wire during a hardwood tourney in Las Vegas.
The 2008 offering comes Saturday as the 16th-ranked BYU football team plays Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl and the unbeaten basketball Cougars face No. 18 Arizona State at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
If Lee Cummand and company can beat the Sun Devils, the Cougars will vault into the Top 25 with an 11-0 mark and likely be ranked in the Top 20 when they host No. 10 Wake Forest on Jan. 3. That'll be a fun one.
BYU's football team looks to end on a positive note and earn a third straight 11-win season against an Arizona team that runs similar offensive and defensive schemes to the Cougars.
The B-ball tips at 2:30 p.m. on FSN. The gridders take the field at 6 p.m. on ESPN.
It's a feast worthy of the holiday season. And if the Cougars go 2-0 on the day, we'll all be wearing by smiles when we show up to church Sunday.
Enjoy.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Is BYU still alive for a BCS bid?
Question 1: Is BYU still alive for a BCS bowl berth after an embarrassing 32-7 loss at TCU?
Answer: Yes.
Question 2: Do the Cougars deserve that?
Answer: No.
Simply put, BYU did not look remotely like a BCS caliber team in last Thursday's loss in Fort Worth.
The Cougars are No. 21 in the first BCS standings of the season. Five other non-BCS conference teams are ranked above the Cougars, including Utah (No. 11), Boise State (12), TCU (14), Tulsa (19) and Ball State (20).
Here's what needs to happen for the Cougars to get into the BCS Top 12 by the end of November and pass the handful of teams above in the BCS-buster mix.
1. BYU must win out and win convincingly.
2. Utah must beat TCU and lose to BYU. A loss by the Utes against New Mexico is also possible, but may not actually help the Cougars' cause. Beating an 11-0, Top 10 Utah team would look a lot better for the Y on Nov. 22.
3. Boise State must lose. The Broncos have an extremeley soft schedule, so this isn't likely. The best bets to give BSU a game are San Jose State this week, Nevada on Nov. 22 and Fresno State on Nov. 28. Too bad the Bulldogs have gone down the toilet since the loss to Wisconsin.
4. Ball State and Tulsa must lose. Ball State faces nothing but MAC fodder. Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan will need to play outstanding games to have a shot. As for Tulsa, an Oct. 26 home game against Central Florida and a Nov. 1 road trip to Arkansas are the "toughest" obstacles against a junior-high caliber schedule. A trip to Houston on Nov. 15 could be a mild test.
In short, the odds are long for BYU to get back in the mix. If the Cougars win out, they will be ranked in the Top 12. But passing the teams above them, especially if those teams keep winning, isn't likely.
Looks like another December trip to Vegas or maybe a return to Fort Worth (ughh).
Answer: Yes.
Question 2: Do the Cougars deserve that?
Answer: No.
Simply put, BYU did not look remotely like a BCS caliber team in last Thursday's loss in Fort Worth.
The Cougars are No. 21 in the first BCS standings of the season. Five other non-BCS conference teams are ranked above the Cougars, including Utah (No. 11), Boise State (12), TCU (14), Tulsa (19) and Ball State (20).
Here's what needs to happen for the Cougars to get into the BCS Top 12 by the end of November and pass the handful of teams above in the BCS-buster mix.
1. BYU must win out and win convincingly.
2. Utah must beat TCU and lose to BYU. A loss by the Utes against New Mexico is also possible, but may not actually help the Cougars' cause. Beating an 11-0, Top 10 Utah team would look a lot better for the Y on Nov. 22.
3. Boise State must lose. The Broncos have an extremeley soft schedule, so this isn't likely. The best bets to give BSU a game are San Jose State this week, Nevada on Nov. 22 and Fresno State on Nov. 28. Too bad the Bulldogs have gone down the toilet since the loss to Wisconsin.
4. Ball State and Tulsa must lose. Ball State faces nothing but MAC fodder. Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan will need to play outstanding games to have a shot. As for Tulsa, an Oct. 26 home game against Central Florida and a Nov. 1 road trip to Arkansas are the "toughest" obstacles against a junior-high caliber schedule. A trip to Houston on Nov. 15 could be a mild test.
In short, the odds are long for BYU to get back in the mix. If the Cougars win out, they will be ranked in the Top 12. But passing the teams above them, especially if those teams keep winning, isn't likely.
Looks like another December trip to Vegas or maybe a return to Fort Worth (ughh).
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