Monday, June 1, 2009

OU equals U.O. (Unideal Opener)

While Oklahoma (2009 opener) and Northern Iowa (2008 opener) are light years a part as far as football programs go, they do share one thing in common. Both represent far from ideal season openers for the BYU football team.

BYU had a string of ideal openers from 2002 to 2007, but that ended with Northern Iowa and continues with the Sooners. It's an unfortunate trend as the season opener is the most hyped game of the season. It's the only game that has months of lead-up time. It's the game Cougar fans spend the entire summer pining for.

So, what makes an ideal season opener? I see four criteria:

1. A toss-up game. A 50-50 matchup in which the outcome could easily go either way means the hype and ancipation reach much higher levels. When BYU is neither a clear favorite (as in 2008) or a heavy underdog (as in 2009), the buildup to the season opener is far superior.

2. A BCS opponent. Taking on a team from a BCS conference is key. Facing a FCS (Division I-AA) team or someone like Tulane takes the luster off the opener.

3. National television: Beating a BCS foe before the eyes of the nation gives BYU an important opportunity to gain national respect and rise in the rankings before the MWC slate begins.

4. Home sweet home: Playing a LaVell Edwards Stadium means BYU is nearly assured of opening the season 1-0. The Cougars have lost four straight road season openers, but are 8-2 in their last 10 home season openers.

When a game fits all four criteria, it's an ideal season opener. Three of four makes in nearly ideal. Anything less falls into the unideal category. Here's a look at where BYU's recent season openers fall on this scale.

2009: BYU vs. Oklahoma (At Arlington, Texas), Unideal (two of four criteria met)
2008: BYU vs. Northern Iowa (LES), Unideal (two of four)
2007: BYU vs. Arizona, Ideal (four of four)
2006: BYU at Arizona, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2005: BYU vs. Boston College, Ideal (four of four)
2004: BYU vs. Notre Dame, Ideal (four of four)
2003: BYU vs. Georgia Tech, Ideal (four of four)
2002: BYU vs. Syracuse, Ideal (four of four)
2001: BYU vs. Tulane, Nearly ideal (three of four)
2000: BYU at Florida State, Unideal (two of four)

Conclusion: Is there upside to the 2009 opener? Certainly. A win would put BYU in the Top 15 of the national polls and would help the Cougars supplant Boise State, TCU and Utah as the early front runner for a non-BCS team most likely to make a BCS game. But the truth is, BYU will be at least a 17-point underdog and will likely start the season 0-1. That makes the home opener with Florida State -- which would qualify as an ideal season opener -- that much bigger. Starting 1-2 (or 0-3 with an upset loss at Tulane) would be devastating.