Holy War matchups and prediction

Talk about an intriguing matchup. Consider this: The Holy War rivarly already boasts nine of the last 10 games being decided by seven points or fewer. Yet during that span, never have the two teams entered the game more evenly matched on paper than Saturday's contest between No. 23 BYU and Utah. Of course, as always in this game, you can throw out records (the Cougars are 8-2 and Utes 8-3, just for the record) and toss out any thoughts of home-field advantage (Utah has won six of the last seven games at LaVell Edward Stadium).

Setting the table

Saturday's noon game (the Mtn, CSTV and VERSUS) features two quarterbacks (BYU's Max Hall and Utah's Brian Johnson) making their first foray into the Holy War, two running backs (BYU's Harvey Unga and Utah's Darrell Mack) whose season has far exceeded any preseason expections, two offenses that each boast seven receivers with 12 catches or more and two defenses ranked in the top 20 nationally in total defense (BYU 14th, Utah 16th).

Matching up

A look at this season's results tell us two things: BYU is slightly better than Utah at scoring points, but the Utes are slightly better than the Cougs at limiting the opposition's scoring output. Here's a breakdown of each phase of the game.

Getting a bit offensive

Utah is powered by Darrell Mack. The running back has 1,095 yards on the year. If he runs successfully up the middle, the Utes are tough to stop. Brian Johnson has thrown for 1,492 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven picks. Not amazing numbers when sidled up next to Max Hall's 3,121 yards, 21 TDs and 10 picks. Johnson is more mobile, but only has 56 rushing yards this year. Both teams throw to multiple receivers, but rely on the rushing game to make the passing game go. Ultimately, BYU has two advantages: Unga's ability to catch the ball out the backfield (he has 573 receiving yards to Mack's 117) makes his contributions more diverse than Mack's and BYU's passing game is more adept at steadily moving the football and just has a few more weapons between Unga's rushing (931 yards) and the pass-catching ablities of Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta.
Advantage: BYU.

'Stops' being defensive

BYU and Utah don't like to give up points. Both have solid team leaders at linebacker (Utah's Joe Jiannoni and BYU's Brian Kehl and Kelly Poppinga) and in the secondary (Utah's Steve Tate and BYU's Ben Criddle). On the defensive line, both feature young talent (Utah's Koa Misi and Paul Kruger and BYU's Jan Jorgensen and Brett Denney). Against common foes, the Utes have tended the limit team's scoring, but that's largely thanks to field position created by Louie Sakoda's leg. Still, with Quinn Gooch out of the BYU secondary with a season-ending knee injury, the Utes may even be slightly better here. But the Cougars strength at linebacker levels the field.
Advantage: Even

What's special about these teams

On special teams, both squads feature dangerous kick returners. BYU's Austin Collie averages 26 yards per return, while Utah's Brice McCain is at 23.3. But almost every other area of this vital third phase of the game belongs to the Utes. Derrek Richards averages 15.5 yards per punt return to Bryce Mahuika's 8.3. And kicker Louis Sakoda is 18 of 21 on field goals and 32 of 34 on PATs. BYU's Mitch Payne had two kicks blocked at Wyoming last week and is 6 of 9 on field goals. Sakoda is more accurate and has a stronger leg. If the game comes down to a kick, especially one of 35 yards or more, the Utes have to like their chances.
Advantage: Utah.

Who will win this one

Before we get to which team will win this one, here's six players who will ultimately decide the outcome of the 2007 edition of the Holy War.
Utah's Steve Tate: If the talented defensive back can pick off Max Hall during the game and lay big hits on the BYU receivers, back and tight ends, the Utes make is seven of eight at LES.
BYU's Kellen Fowler: Replacing Quinn Quich at safety, Fowler is the quarterback of the defense, getting BYU in the right sets. Making only his second career start, Fowler's decisions and playmaking ability will largely determine if the Utes score 20 points or more.
Utah's Brian Johnson: If Johnson's passes are pedestrian and he doesn't make plays with his feet, Utah will become one-dimensional with Darrell Mack's rushing and the BYU D will have a field day. If Johnson is accurate and dangerous, watch out.
BYU's Max Hall: If Hall gets rid of the ball quickly, makes smarts decisions and finds his array of receivers, tight ends and running backs, BYU won't have trouble scoring 20-30 points. His ability to read Utah's blitzes and find the right guy will be big. If he's got nerves in the biggest game of his young career, the mistakes could mount. But if he plays well, BYU has a clear edge under center.
Utah's Louis Sakoda: By controlling field position with his punts, Sakoda could make it a long day for BYU's offense. The Cougars certainly can drive 80 to 90 yards if needed, but having to do so throughout the game will limit the offensive output. And if a game-winning or game-turning field goal is needed, Sakoda is money in the bank.
BYU's Mitch Payne: Payne's short kickoffs could give the Utes great field position, especially if the ball lands in Brice McCain's hands. If Payne misses a PAT or field goal, the Cougars likely lose a close one.

The pick

Early in the week, I was leaning toward Utah. But ultimately, BYU has more offensive weapons, a better quarterback and more diverse running back. That should overcome Utah's advantages on special teams. Both defenses are good, but this one will feature some points.
Final score: BYU 28, Utah 24