From speed bump to Mount Everest: Rating the 2009 BYU football schedule

The 2009 BYU football schedule is a dandy, particularly for season ticket holders as LES. Last year's home slate had little to entice the Cougar Faithful, but this year's lineup is loaded with Florida State, TCU and Utah coming to LES. When I asked BYU's beat writers which home game was the toughest, all three answered "Utah." But how do the 12 regular-season games stack up in terms of toughness. Here's my take on the schedule, from speed bump (Utah State) to Mount Everest (Oklahoma), with BYU's chances of winning rated from 1 (extremely slim) to 10 (sure bet). Consider a 5 as a 50-50 toss-up game.

12. Utah State (Oct. 2)
The skinny: Aggies are better in 2009, but Cougars get ready for conference weekend with a lopsided home win.
Rating: 9

11. Wyoming (Nov. 7)
The skinny: Pokes always fade late and team will rebuild with new coach and new schemes. Cougars roll in Laramie once again.
Rating: 8.5

10. San Diego State (Oct. 17)
The skinny: Aztecs rebuild under another new coach and again underachieve, fading in the second half against BYU.
Rating: 8.

9. Colorado State (Sept. 26)
The skinny: Rams won't keep pace with Cougars at LES, so last year's shootout isn't repeated.
Rating: 8.

8. Air Force (Nov. 21)
The skinny: BYU knows how to defend the Falcons, especially at home.
Rating: 8

7. UNLV (Oct. 10)
The skinny: Rebels continue to make minor strides and will give Cougars a good test in Sin City.
Rating: 6.5

6. New Mexico (Nov. 14)
The skinny: Lobos rebuild with new coach and new schemes, but always play BYU tough in Albuquerque.
Rating: 6

5. Tulane (Sept. 12)
The skinny: Green Wave had injury-riddle 2008 season, but has talent to hang with BYU in the Louisiana Superdome.
Rating: 6

4. Florida State (Sept. 19)
The skinny: The Seminoles present numerous matchup challenges with their speed and athleticism. But FSU is weak in the secondary, which means BYU should put up plenty of points.
Rating: 5

3. TCU (Oct. 24)
The skinny: Cougs look to avenge 2008 embarrassment in Fort Worth, but a loaded TCU team will provide a stiff homecoming challenge.
Rating: 5

2. Utah (Nov. 28)
The skinny: No matter the circumstances or records, this one's always tough. Utah should take a couple steps back in 2009, but will still be primed for a big rivalry game.
Rating: 5

1. Oklahoma (Sept. 5)
The skinny: BYU faces biggest obstacle of the year right out of the chute. BYU's question at defensive tackle could mean a long day against OU's stable of backs, while Heisman winner Sam Bradford could destory the Cougars' porous secondary.
Rating: 1.5

Point after: Cougars should be favored in at least eight of their 12 games. But the other four will prove what kind of season it turns out to be. If BYU goes 8-0 in games 12-5 and can split Nos. 4-1, a 10-2 season would be pretty successful. Eleven wins is not out of the question, but would require some major strides on the defensive end.