Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Smells a bit like 1996

There have been some great BYU teams in the past 20 years. But no team in that span came closer to perfection than the 1996 squad. Why is that significant? Well, turns out the 1996 campaign has a number of similarities to the coming 2008 season. For starters, both the 1996 and 2008 schedules feature early home and away games against foes from BCS conference as well as a game against a I-AA (now FCS) team. In 1996, BYU beat Texas A&M at home, hammered Arkansas State and lost at Washington. This year, it's UCLA at home in Week 3 after Northern Iowa in the opener and a trip to ... drumroll please ... Washington.
In 1996, BYU had a second-year starter at QB who happened to be a transfer student. In 2008, BYU has a second-year starter at QB who happens to be a transfer student. The upside in '08? Steve Sarkinsian's first season at BYU saw him throw 20 TDs to 14 picks on a 7-4 team. Max Hall's debut year: 26 TDs to 12 picks on an 11-2 team. If Hall' Year 2 goes as well as (or better than) Sarkinsian's, BYU may follow the 1996 pattern and play a bowl game in January. Here's a quick summary of how the 1996 roster stacks up against the 2008 squad.

Quarterback

Sarkinsian was an incredibly accurate passer. Like Hall, he wasn't known for his running ability, but had a knack for making plays. Sarkinsian complete almost 70 percent of his passes as a senior, tossing 33 touchdowns to just 12 picks. We'll give Sarkinsian a slight edge overall, but BYU's offense is in very good hands this fall.

Running back

The Cougars were loaded in the backfield in '96 with Brian McKenzie as the bruising back and Ronney Jenkins as the speedster. Mark Atuaia and Dustin Johnson added depth, blocking and receiving ability. The 2008 team is likewise loaded with Harvey Unga, Fui Vakapuna and Wayne Latu. Playing the role of Jenkins is redshirt freshman J.J. Diluigi. If he lives up to the hype (and his performance in the spring game), BYU should be just a solid at RB and FB as the 1996 team. Had Manase Tonga been eligible, this year's team would have the upper hand.

Receivers/tight ends

It's hard to top Chad Lewis and Itula Mili at tight end. While BYU has been at tight end factory, those two were possibly the best duo in a long list of talented TE tandems. If Andrew George steps up a bit, he and Dennis Pitta could have a season reminiscent of Lewis/Mili. At receiver, K.O. Kealaluhi led the 96 team, with Kaipo McGuire as the possession receiver and James Dye as the speedster/deep threat. This year's team has Austin Collie (a combo of K.O. and Dye) and Michael Reed (this year's Kaipo) to lead the way. To match the effort of the 1996 Cougars, BYU will need a third receiver like Spencer Hafoka, Luke Ashworth (if he stays at WR), Reed White or Tyler Kozlowski to step up.

Offensive line

Justin Johnson and Larry Moore led a great group in 1996. But it's hard to imagine a deeper and more talented line than the 2008 version. BYU struggled at times under new line coach Mark Weber in 2007, playing under expectations. But with talent throughout the two-deep, look for big holes for the backs and plenty of time to throw (i.e., fewer blind-side hits on Hall). Give 2008 the edge here.

Defensive line

Henry Bloomfield was a monster in '96 and a young Byron Frisch made plays at well. In 2008, Jan Jorgensen is the leader with plenty of talent around him in Ian Dulan, Brett Denney, Russell Tialavea and transfers like Tevita Hola and Bernard Afutiti. If those two contribute, this year's line will be better and deeper than its 1996 counterpart.

Linebackers

Advantage: 1996. Shay Muirbrook, Brad Martin, Spencer Reid and company were talented, experienced and tough. There's talent in 2008, but most of that talent has yet to prove itself. Bryan Kehl and Kelly Poppinga will be missed. This year's group is capable -- leb by David Nixon, Matt Bauman and Shawn Doman -- but unspectacular. Yet.

Secondary

Remember Tim McTyer and Omarr Morgan. Enough said. The '96 team was better hands down. Eddie Sampson, Lane Hall and Ben Cook were capable as well. The 2008 secondary will prove better than expected, but it could take some time for experience and talent to gel into success. Scott Johnson and Brandon Howard are talented, while David Tafuna and Kellen Fowler have experience. BYU needs Andrew Rich and Brandon Bradley to make a big contributions if the secondary is to succeed.

Overall

Both the '96 and '08 offenses are/were loaded. From QB to RB to WR and OL, there's not a weakness. BYU scored 40 or more points nine times in 1996. Don't expect a repeat of that number, but the 2008 squad will put up plenty of points. While the 1996 defense had more experience overall, the Cougars did give up 20 points or more in six of 15 games. The 2008 team may not be equal in talent, but could be more efficient in the current 3-4 scheme. If BYU gets a key group of players to step up at linebacker and in the secondary, that loss at Washington in 1996 could turn into a win in 2008 and BYU will repeat its perfection of 1984. Even a one-loss BYU has a good shot to reach a BCS game and become the second Cougar squad to play in January.

2 comments:

Dilly said...
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Ben E. said...

Untill this years team proves me wrong i stand by my statement that the '96 is the best squad Byu has produced, i even dare to say better then the nation champions team. '96 was a magical year. I am hoping this year will be the same but with one less loss, ha ha, here's hoping.